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Prediction for CME (2023-07-03T22:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-03T22:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25812/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Wide CME seen to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 during a STEREO A COR2 data gap, likely associated with a C8.9-class solar flare and simultaneous eruption from the vicinity of AR3360, seen best in SDO 304. After the brightening, a jet of plasma is seen being ejected from the region towards the east. No clear arrival detected across all solar wind parameters, but we are checking with LASSOS team.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-08T15:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/25814/1
Model Inputs:
2023-07-03T22:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-32.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=268.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2023-07-04T10:58Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-07-08T15:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-10T00:00Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-06T21:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-08T10:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230704_105800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230704_105800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230704_105800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230704_105800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230704_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230704_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230704_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230704_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230704_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230704_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230704_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230704_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230704_105800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 96.35 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-07-04T14:39Z

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